A concept built for Georgian Bay Spirit Co by Cilantric · not your live system · sample data, yours to keep
Denzil Wadds · StrategyDW

11 SKUs · 6 provincial channels · one summer that doesn't wait

Know which Smash sells out before the summer does — and build for it, not after it.

You sold a year of Gin Smash in four weeks, then kept selling out. Everyone tells that story as a marketing win. From the plant floor it's a demand signal the line couldn't answer in time — a summer of revenue that walked because a can wasn't on the shelf. This is what a live planner could look like: every SKU's forecast against what's actually scheduled to be made, weeks of cover per channel, and the build-ahead decisions surfaced while there's still line time to book. Numbers below are illustrative sample data.

3
SKUs at stockout risk before the Aug long weekend
peak-season window
$612K
Forecast revenue exposed if we don't build ahead
next 8 weeks
3.3 wk
Gin Smash cover vs 9 weeks of demand ahead
flagship SKU
94%
Forecast accuracy, trailing 12 weeks
vs actual depletions

SKU forecast vs. what's scheduled to be made

sorted by soonest stockout
SKULead channel 8-wk forecastOn-hand + booked CoverStatus
Gin Smash 12×355SKU 100-GNS-12 LCBO 18,400 7,700 3.3 wk Stockout risk
Peach Gin Smash (seasonal)SKU 118-PGS-12 LCBO + DTC 6,800 1,900 2.2 wk Stockout risk
Vodka Smash 12×355SKU 102-VKS-12 LCBO 11,200 6,900 4.9 wk Build now
Vodka Smash 12×355SKU 102-VKS-12 AGLC (Alberta) 2,900 2,600 5.4 wk Build now
Grapefruit Gin SmashSKU 121-GGS-12 BCLDB (BC) 3,400 4,100 9.6 wk On track
Georgian Bay Gin 750mlSKU 010-GBG-750 Distillery Store + DTC 1,250 2,050 13.1 wk On track
Cranberry Gin Smash (winter)SKU 130-CGS-12 · Q4 launch LCBO — plan 7,600 0 book Sep Plan ahead

Production alerts

auto-generated
!
Gin Smash runs dry pre-long-weekend
Cover ends ~week of Jul 27 against forecast. Last date to book a canning run and still land LCBO shelves in time: Jul 9.
!
Peach seasonal sells out mid-July
Only 1,900 cases against 6,800 forecast. A short shelf window means every lost case is gone for the year — no second season.
▲
Two Vodka Smash channels inside 6-wk cover
LCBO + AGLC both dipping. One combined run covers both instead of two reactive rushes.
✓
BCLDB Q3 PO reconciled
Grapefruit Gin Smash order matched to build plan — no action.

Canning line — build plan

next 4 weeks
Wk of Jul 6 — booked68%
Wk of Jul 13 — booked41%
Wk of Jul 20 — needed for cover96%
Wk of Jul 27 — needed for cover88%

Open line time this week and next is exactly where the at-risk SKUs should go. Book the Gin & Peach runs now and the red weeks turn green before they ever cost a sale.

Why this exists: your brand out-runs your plant, and that's a good problem — but it's still a problem. This layer sits on top of what you already run (LCBO/provincial depletion data, DTC, the Distillery Store, your production schedule) and turns "sold out again" into a booked line run three weeks earlier. The forecasting is model-driven under the hood; what you see is one screen: what to make, how much, and by when — with the revenue at stake on each call. Sample data shown — a real build wires to your actual depletions and schedule.